My own biggest failed prediction actually predates 2008, but it took me all of this year to understand just how wrong I had been (or, at least, to admit it). I talked about "burning the boats&… Read more
The financial markets may be in turmoil, but business goes on. How exactly it's going on is a central theme at the Gartner Symposium ITxpo in Florida this week, as ZDNet Editor in Chief of ZDNet Larry Dignan reports
Analysts have already explained why they think the Internet is radically altering the economics of the media landscape. Now, Gartner's Mark Stahlman and Michael McGuire say in a "maverick" presentation, healthcare and the financial services industry could well be next.
It's a point well taken, Dignan says, but--It's a bit of a stretch. Both … Read more
I am not a fan of the prediction market business. I know that many game and social theorists think they're valuable predictors of crowd behavior, but I've seen too many prediction start-ups turn into intellectual wastelands, with a few people controlling the "price" of opinions that are either pointless on the face of it, or bizarrely tilted in one direction or the other.
For Apple to sell 45 million iPhones next year, it would have to quadruple its sales from 2008.
Yes, that's more than a bit optimistic. The analyst who originally made that sales prediction for Apple back before the phone was even launched is at it again, though, on Monday explaining how he thinks it could happen.
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster insists--despite consensus that his prediction is entirely overeager--that Apple will do so by introducing a 3G version of the iPhone in the second or third quarter of this year, as well as a lower-price version of the … Read more
I've always preferred prognostication to nostalgia, so rather than replay the best of 2007, I'll use these late December doldrums to make 10 predictions for the coming year. Some editors will warn you that this kind of list is suicide--it's too easy for everybody to look back a year later and see where you were wrong--but it hasn't hurt Cringely, so here goes. In no particular order.
Far be it from me to question the work of McKinsey but their list of Eight business technology trends to watch in 2008 all seem like things we already watch just with different names. Nonetheless, it's a good read as we head into the new year.Distributing cocreation--sounds like open source development to me Using consumers as innovators--crowdsourcing Tapping into a world of talent--see above Extracting more value from interactions--see above, again I find Number 7-"Putting more science into management" the most interesting The amount of information and a manager's ability to use it have … Read more
SAN FRANCISCO--Scientists are trying to peer a bit further into the future than the typical five-day weather forecasts available today.
Forecasting weather is a notoriously tough challenge that combines physics modeling, data collection, and computer processing--and unlike many scientific problems, pretty much everyone on the planet cares how well it's done. But forecasts today peter out after a few days, leaving a cloud of uncertainty (forgive me) that only lifts when it comes to predicting seasonal weather phenomena such as El Nino.
Scientists are now getting a handle on intermediate-term forecasts by computer models of a particular type of … Read more